What are SOPA & PIPA? Explanation in a layman’s language

Wikipedia observed a 24hrs blackout protesting against SOPA

SOPA and PIPA are the buzzing words on the internet these days. For the whole of last week, I noticed lots of discussions and activities happening around these two words on almost all social networks and online forums. Websites like Wikipedia, Reddit (and 7000 others) went dark for 24 hours protesting against SOPA & PIPA. With little efforts, I managed to understand that SOPA is ‘Stop Online Piracy Act’, a law proposed in the US Congress to stop the act of ‘piracy’. Similarly, PIPA stands for ‘Protect IP Act’, a bill almost similar to SOPA moved in US Senate. Then why so much outrage against the laws proposed to ‘stop online piracy’? Apparently, these two proposed US bills can potentially bring censorship on internet. I’m sure most of us know this much with no idea about the details of the two acts.

SOPA’s progress has been delayed as the bill was recalled on Friday. It has now been sent to cold storage till ‘wider consensus’ is achieved. So the proposed law, now recalled, was bad. But how bad and why so?

Today, while doing a detailed research on the topic to find out how exactly the bill is supposed to bring censorship, I found out some excellent resources which explain the whole issue beautifully. I am sharing the resources for the help of those who want to know more but still have no idea about the minute details of these two bills.

Check the video by Salman Khan of Khan Academy that does a brilliant job in describing the cons of two bills in a lucid manner. If you do not possess the technical knowledge of how internet works (Don’t worry, even the US politicians who support SOPA & PIPA have admitted that they don’t understand how internet works), this video is for you.

Those who have more time, you should this article from Gizmodo.com ‘What Is SOPA?’. A bit geeky stuff but gives a clearer picture. It lists out potential hazards of such laws with examples.

If the intention of the bills is to stop piracy, then SOPA and PIPA are definitely not the answer. To solve the problem of piracy, the cause of piracy needs to be addressed. In the current form, SOPA & PIPA don’t seem to be doing that rather it stands as a grave threat to the idea of free speech and freedom.

You can read the full text of the bill here: Stop Online Piracy Act 2011-12

What are your views on the proposed legislation? Share your views in the comments.

Taking the ‘quality @ IIT’ debate to the next level

Tags

Debate, Education, Gautam Barua, IIT, IIT Guawahati, India, Indian Education system, Indian Institute of Technology Joint Entrance Examination, indian of Institute technology, INFOSYS, N. R. Narayana Murthy, Test (assessment)

Being an Engineering student myself, INFOSYS founder Mr. Narayan Murthy’s comments on the quality of students at IITs and the debate that followed interested me. Mr. Murthy commented that the coaching institutes that prepare students for cracking the IIT JEE entrance examination are the primary reason for the decrease in the quality of students entering IITs. Expectedly, the comments caused furore. Some opposed and some supported this view. But that’s it. That’s how debates happen in our country. People talk pros and cons of a topic, stress on trivial issues and the topic dies a premature death. Debates are rarely taken to the next level here.

My personal opinion on this issue is that coaching institutes are definitely not the reason for falling standards. These are the symptoms of a larger problem in the IIT entrance system. These institutes just exploit the loopholes in that system. The larger problem is the unnecessary importance the IIT exam system gives on the rank secured in the JEE. If single factor decides your entry to prestigious institutes like IITs, then everyone will try to score over others on that single factor. And that is when the third parties like coaching institutes come into the picture promising you to help in this cut-throat race. The present entrance system ensures only ruthless competition but no one ever pondered: Is this competition worth it? Does IITs get what they deserve? And most importantly, do the students who deserve IITs get there through this system?

There is one more issue, in my opinion, that is responsible for the falling quality of IIT students. Do people genuinely interested in engineering get into Engineering institutions? The answer is no. When you say, the present quality is not like what used to be, it really means previously those interested in pursuing career in Engineering used to enter such institutes and others chose other options. But the case is different now. Most of the students joining Engineering do not join it because they love it but because they (and their parents, relatives and ‘well wishers’) find Engineering course ‘glamorous’. Have you ever wondered why the quality of IIT students is more than the quality of students at state engineering colleges and the quality of the latter more than the quality of students studying in private colleges? The reason is the same. No wonder, more uninspired engineers are produced from the local private colleges.

But never ever a debate happens over this. We are only interested to know whether Narayan Murthy was right. But thankfully, IIT Guwahati Director has taken the debate to the next level. This morning, an interview of Mr. Gautam Barua, Director, IITG appeared in the Sunday TOI. I am reproducing the interview here and urge you to read it. Emphasis has been added to the parts of the interview that I found most important.

The Interview of Gautam Barua to TOI

TOI: Do you agree with N R Narayana Murthy’s comment that the quality of students entering IITs is poor?

Gautam Barua (GB): I don’t agree with the comment that IIT students are not good. I don’t fully agree with what Narayana Murthy said. The issue really is how the obsession with coaching is affecting the students entering IITs.

TOI: How is the coaching culture affecting students?

GB: It makes its impact on students after their selection. On entering the IITs after undergoing excessive coaching, the students are almost burnt-out and mentally fatigued. Then the IITs for them become a place to relax. Coaching is the primary reason that affects the performance of students. A mindset has been created that if they (students) do not opt for coaching, they may not have the chance to get admission to the IITs. That is why there is such a big business in coaching.

IIT has a brand value. Parents and students want to enter IIT without thinking what they will do. So after they graduate from the IITs, many of them don’t go for engineering jobs; they rather go for the finance sector, management or do jobs which have no connection with engineering. We have seen that about half of the students from IITs are really not interested in engineering.

TOI: Isn’t that undermining the excellent engineering education imparted by the institution?

GB: It is time for the government to create IIT-like institutions in the field of humanities. Let there be IIT-like institutions in economics, philosophy and other fields of humanities, with IIT-like campuses and branding. Then it will no longer be necessary for students to get admitted to IITs and later join non-engineering jobs. 

TOI: Does coaching by private institutes make entry into the IITs easier?

GB: IIT coaching is an industry now. But it doesn’t matter to us when it comes to student admissions. Even if there are no coaching centres, the IITs will fill up their seats with students.

TOI: Is there a move to make changes in the selection process of IITs?

GB: Yes, the government and the IIT council discussed the issues of the entrance examination and coaching institutes in September. It was decided to change the admission process where the current JEE will be replaced by the school board results and results of an aptitude test. Since there are 30 school boards in the country, a common method of standardized board results has to be decided upon. The method proposed by the council is to use the percentile ranks of students. There is little arithmetic in this. In this method, the absolute marks will be decided as the rank of the student in his/her board along with the size of the board (i.e., number of students taking the examination in the science stream in the board).

TOI: Will this method reduce the students’ over-dependence on coaching?

GB: Once this scheme is in place, the coaching part will be part of the board exams. So, with this method, school education becomes very important. I think it will be fine for schools to prepare students for the IITs.

TOI: Has the IIT brand changed or lost its sheen in recent years?

GB: Two decades back, the IIT as a brand solely depended on quality BTech students. Today, more than half of all the students in the IITs are in post-graduate courses. So in the 21st century, the IIT is in the process of building its brand through research and development, rather than through BTech output.

*End Of Interview*

I will be an engineering graduate in less than a year but admittedly I never loved engineering. Now I want to do an MBA but this time it is a conscious decision unlike the one I took 4 years ago. People often ask me why do I want an MBA after ‘wasting’ 4 years in Engineering (asking this question has become fashionable after the 3Idiots). I am blamed to have wasted Government’s money by joining engineering in a prestigious state govt. funded college and then shied away from doing engineering jobs. But the BBA/B.Com stream (students of which stream should logically get into the MBA bandwagon) was never made ‘glamorous’ for me to join it. This world always gave priority to the B.Tech+MBA degrees. So where is my mistake in choosing Engineering as my launchpad for an MBA degree? People join Medical or Engineering after Higher Secondary education simply because these fields are glamorous. If there had been any other glamorous and seemingly productive way available to go the MBA way, I (and many like me) might have used that. This is effectively the reason why the quality of engineers is dropping day by day. We, the ‘uninspired’ engineers, block the seats of those who might have loved engineering more than us. But the system gave neither us nor them an option. As Mr. Barua said in the interview, let there be top class IIT like institutes in every field of education so that students can pursue career in an area of their choice. Only then you should expect students of quality expected by IITs joining IITs.

[Sorry to the regular readers for not updating this blog for last one and half months. Academic pressure kept me away from the blog even though a number of incidents happened during this period that I would have loved to cover. The compulsions are not going to end anytime soon. So it may be hard to keep this space updated. May be till February next year. My target will be to find time to write at least one post per month till February 2012.]

To All Lokpal Supporters: Where is your common sense?

Tags

Anna Hazare, Asia, India, Lokpal, Member of parliament, Political corruption, Ralegan Siddhi, Ramlila

Yesterday, I received an SMS. The content of the SMS was something like this. “A 7 year old boy XYZ from Hyderabad is suffering from cancer. His family is very poor. You can help his family by just forwarding this message. All leading mobile service providers have agreed to pay XYZ’s family 20 paisa for each message sent. You can also confirm this by talking to XYZ’s father on this number: 09*********.” As soon as I read the whole sms, I was sure that this is nothing but a spam message. But I decided to call the number given in the sms out of curiosity. When I called the number, the computerised voice on the other side said, “The number you are trying doesn’t exist”. I wasn’t surprised even though I had not expected this outcome. You have to admire the person who started this sms chain not because of his mischievous intent but because of how effortlessly he could trap everyone till me in the chain by putting a wrong mobile number. No one bothered to dial that number to talk to XYZ’s father at least to show some sympathy but felt nice that they did their bit to help a boy suffering from cancer by just forwarding a small SMS. Complete lack of common sense, no?

As soon as I deleted the message, suddenly a thought flashed in my mind. I could relate this sms with the whole Anna-Lokpal episode. Someone called Anna Hazare (may not with the mischievous intent that of the SMS chain initiator) claims that ‘India’ is suffering from Corruption (which is like cancer) and to help India to fight corruption, the people need to support a concept called Lokpal. This Lokpal can single handedly uproot the mighty corruption in our system. But like the sms forwarders who never bothered to check the truth of the content of the SMS, people did not bother to check the truth behind Anna Hazare’s words. While everyone is interested in what will be the powers of this lokpal, no one is ready to ask the simple question: ‘Do we really need a Lokpal?’ May be the lack of common sense playing a role?

I don’t want to go into ‘why lokpal is not a solution to corruption’ topic again. You can check my views from my last post here. The simple question I want to raise in today’s post is why are we not ready to use our common sense? People want to depend on an imaginary body like lokpal to curb corruption in India, but why can’t they stop taking or giving bribes? People don’t realise that the key to fight corruption lies in their hands. Imagine what if all the supporters of Anna who visited the Ramlila Maidan or the local protest sites in different states decide not to give or ask for bribes. This commonsensical way will be more effective in curbing corruption than building a whole new institution called lokpal.

Anna must be given the credit for awakening the Indians against corruption in our system but he must not lead his followers to support his cause of creating a ‘white elephant’ for the country. People must realise that If not having Lokpal is not the cause of corruption, then having a lokpal will not stop corruption. Lokpal, which makes the already complex system more complex, can at best be just a job generating agency considering the number of employees the proposed body will need. But it can’t satisfy the basic purpose of ‘eliminating’ corruption. So a simple advice to all pro-Lokpal anti-corruption crusaders, Please, use the common sense before jumping into the fight with a flawed goal.

A Request: This blog is doing ‘The New Dimension: The Mood of the youth’ Survey on the internet. If you are an Indian citizen and your age is between 18-45, take part in this survey by filling up this form -> tinyurl.com/moodofyouth. The results of the survey will be published soon on this blog.

Anna tum sangharsh karo, par mein tumhare saath nahin

Tags

Anna Hazare, Asia, Corruption, India, Lokpal, Political corruption, Sanjeev Sabhlok

The Lokpal proposed by Team Anna is not the Solution (Photo: AP / Gurinder Osan)

Why I am not with Anna Hazare in HIS battle against corruption?

In the season of scams and corruption scandals, it is ‘cool’ to be seen on the side of an ‘anti-corruption’ crusader. At the cost of sounding un-cool, I would like to express my views on why Anna Hazare’s Jan Lokpal is a blemished idea to eradicate corruption. Let me tell you from the very beginning that this post is only about the flaws in the Lokpal concept and will not go into other defects in the whole Hazare movement. Method of protest, flaws in the Jan lokpal draft prepared by Team Anna, comparison of Sarkari and Anna’s Lokpal and Team Anna undermining the supremacy of the parliament etc. are all different but related issues which I will avoid in this post to be able to explain the basic idea clearly. The basic idea that: Lokpal is not the solution to finish corruption.

The problem statement we have in our hand is “How to finish/diminish corruption in India?” It is logical to go to the cause of corruption before thinking to eradicate/decrease corruption. Why do corruption happen? Why do we have to pay bribe? After doing corruption, why most of the scams are not exposed? And lastly, if exposed, why most of the culprits manage to escape the punishment? When we say that we are outraged against corruption, we actually mean that we are outraged against these happenings. So think why all these things happen? Isn’t it because of ‘having too many authorities in the country?’

There are numerous government departments, institutions and authorities to look after different aspects of governance. We really need many of these institutions simply because a limited number of organisations can’t govern the huge and varied population we have in our country. But the governments (state and center) have never been able to provide all facilities to these institutions to provide the services effectively to the huge population. So when we (Common public/business organisations) go to all these institutions for accessing the services, we don’t get the perfect service. As we face this in almost all existing institutions (and there are too many of them), we look for shortcuts to get better and speedy service. These shortcuts are known as corruption. If we deserve good service still we have to adopt the corrupt means, then it is okay as ultimately the required job is done. Let’s call it ‘soft corruption’. But thanks to the existence of such corrupt means, some undeserving ones also get the services those are not meant for them. This is the dangerous form of corruption we can call as ‘hard corruption’. The hard corruption is the result of the soft form of corruption which is the result of the too many institutions. This is the root cause of corruption in India. Take some recent examples of hard corruption like CWG Scam and 2G scam etc. and you can understand how the complexity of too many departments led to these scams.

There is one more factor that also lead to graft. Having too may rules and laws which were never clearly defined and implemented meant the numerous institutions could use the loopholes and grey area in these laws to do and then hide corruption.

So, how do you think we can eliminate corruption from public sphere that is caused by having numerous departments, organisations, rules and laws? Obviously not by having a new set of departments, organisations, rules and laws! The idea of having a lokpal is flawed simply because, quoting from Harini Calamur’s blog post, it adds one more layer of bureaucracy.

The lokpal is not just one person. It will be, if implemented, a huge body that will look into every corruption case of all kind in all the states of India. Plus the body is set to be given super powers to check graft. How can we be sure that no one in this new vast system to check corruption will not be corrupt? Without any check, such super cop like institutions are more susceptible to corruption. And who will guarantee that this super man body will not behave with highhandedness?

Another reason why the concept of having a powerful ombudsman is defected is that it doesn’t address the cause but tries to deal with the symptoms. I would like to use the analogy that noted blogger Sanjeev Sabhlok used in his post “Are you serious about removing corruption?”

Imagine a malaria infested area near a stagnant pond. If you keep killing mosquitoes, or using half-open mosquito nets, or have people who want to be bitten by mosquitoes, then you can’t get rid of malaria.

Mosquitoes bite at night. They are invisible. You can’t kill all the mosquitoes individually. Similarly, the corrupt operate in invisible ways. They are blatant, but invisible. And there are lots and lots of them.

The lokpal is a body that will punish the corrupts. But how will it be able to stop the corruption? The only way it can is by sending a strong message to the corrupts by punishing the guilty. But it can be done with the existing laws too. What we need is reforms in the existing structures and proper implementation of the laws. Why build a whole new apparatus without being sure of its effectiveness?

Then what’s the soultion, you will ask. Admittedly, I am not an expert in policy making. But I can suggest a few things that, I think, will work better than the Lokpal.

A. Transparency: Bring more transparency to the different institutions’ working. More transparency means less possibility of corruption. Right To Information is one small way using which even public can keep an eye on the working of any institution. There is more scope for transparency.

B. Electoral reforms: The system should ensure that good people come to politics. Electoral reforms will take care of that. When you have good people in politics, you can expect more transparency and less corruption.

C. Expedite the corruption cases in the court and execute the order swiftly: This is almost the same what Lokpal system wishes to do. Why have a new body when we can do the same with the existing laws and organisations with reforms?

Anna Hazare and his movement may be well-intentioned but (in my opinion) this is not an effective battle against corruption. To his credit, Hazare has created an environment in which the Aam Admi is venting out his suppressed anger against corruption and corrupt politicians. But the anti-corruption medicine he prescribes is not the medicine India needs. All the debate happening concentrates over whose lokpal is better: the government’s or Anna’s. But sadly no one is ready to debate whether we really need a lokpal.

Describing the US debt crisis in a layman’s language

Tags

Barack Obama, Congressional Budget Office, Government spending, India, Republican, Republicans, United States, United States Congress, United States Department of the Treasury, United States House of Representatives, United States public debt

What’s US debt crisis?

Everyone is talking about this new financial crisis. Stock markets all over the world are plunging in response to the US debt crisis. In our country too, the sensex is  on a downward path since the time the news about this crisis broke. Share values of Indian IT companies whose revenues are heavily dependent on the US economy are falling steeply in the response. What exactly is this US debt crisis?

Thanks to the jargon used in most of the news reports, there are high chances that a person who is not an expert in economics will not be able to understand the phenomenon completely. Indian media being obsessed with the crisis’ impact on Indian economy (rightly so) ensures that you will not get to know the crux of the matter. Only thing you can make out of this whole situation is that ‘something very bad’ is happening to the powerful US economy and it may affect our economy too. If you belong to the group of people who want to know what this crisis is all about, then this post is for you. Let me try to describe the phenomenon in a layman’s language.

Why does a country borrow?

When a country spends more than it earns through revenues, it has to borrow money from the global market to meet the expenditure. The country also needs to pay back the debt in installments over a period of time. This is called as debt obligations. So once a country borrows, the expenditure of the country shoots up. Hence the next time the country has to borrow more to meet not just the expenditure but also the debt obligations. From this you can understand that the countries’ debt amount goes on increasing with time as they borrow more and more. United States is no different and is also under a huge debt of $14.3 trillion at present. In fact, lending money to US is considered as a safe and promising investment.

It is very common for a country to spend more than its revenues. So it is also normal for a country to borrow. In 2011 federal budget, the US government estimated the expenditure at $3.82 trillion and revenues at something more than $2 trillion. That implies a deficit of around $1.5 trillion. Under normal situation, US govt. would have borrowed and compensated this deficit. But they couldn’t because of the debt ceiling that is set by the US Congress.

What is debt ceiling?

Debt ceiling is a cap set by the US Congress on the amount of debt the government can borrow. The limit was first set in 1917 at $11.5 billion. Whenever the govt. reaches the ceiling, it can’t borrow more. Every time the cap is reached the Congress approves a higher debt ceiling and directs the treasury to borrow more. To raise the cap, a legislation has to be passed in both the houses of the Congress: the Senate and the House of Representatives. The cap was last raised to $14.3 trillion which the current govt. reached in May this year. Since then the US is not being able to borrow more debt.

Why did not the US Congress raise the ceiling again and borrow?

Obama failed to handle the US debt crisis effectively(Photo: AFP)

This is where the politics has come into the play. Raising the debt ceiling would have been the obvious step as it has happened several times in the past: both under the Democrats and the Republicans. But this time around the Republicans (who are in opposition now) raised reservations over increasing the ceiling. They did not agree to raise the ceiling unless huge spending cuts without tax increase were agreed on. The Tea Party movement that started in 2009 with a focus on reducing government spending and regulation helped the republicans to win a substantial number of seats in the 2010 midterm elections. The Republicans fought the election on the planks of cutting federal spending and stopping tax increases. Sticking to those lines, they refused to support raising the debt ceiling unless their demands were met. Since the Republicans control the House of Representatives, the raising of debt ceiling could not be approved by the house of Representative without their consent. President Obama and his party is in minority in the house. So there was no other way left for the Obama administration and they had to reach a settlement with the opposition as quickly as possible.

What happened then? Did the two parties agreed on some settlement?

As the US had already reached the debt ceiling in May, they needed to tackle the issue immediately. It was apprehended that after August 2nd if the US govt. couldn’t borrow, then US Treasury Department would have run out of money to pay its bills. That could have resulted in widespread panic all over the world because a large number of people and organisations receive payments from the US.

At the end, both sides agreed to control the deficit without raising taxes and by spending cuts. The House of Representatives approved legislation to raise the U.S. debt limit by at least $2.1 trillion and cut federal spending by $2.4 trillion or more. The deal legislation says,

The two-stage plan calls for $2.4 trillion in savings over the next decade, although the Congressional Budget Office pegs the savings at $2.1 trillion. It also authorizes an increase in the nation’s borrowing limit through the end of 2012. A special congressional committee to recommend long-term fiscal reforms is also part of the package.

So a catastrophic event was averted? What is the outcome? All’s well?

Yes, the result could have been catastrophic if the cap wouldn’t have been raised. But the market all over the world has reacted nervously and are worried over the US handling of the debt problem. In an interesting development, USA lost its AAA credit rating to AA+. In common language that means now lending money to US is not safe (AAA rating means safe) and little risky. That also means the interest rates will increase slightly making it difficult for the US to raise money through debt. The current agitation in the financial markets are in reaction to this developments.

You can also refer to this article on ‘The Guardian’ for more clarification.

For more on the sovereign debt rating, you may like to check this Times Of India article. It describes the concepts in simple language.

Check the Wikipedia page for the US debt ceiling crisis here. [Warning: It uses too many jargon]

How many times the same headline needs to be repeated?

Tags

2008 Mumbai attacks, elections, India, Maharashtra, Mumbai, Mumbai Police, Pakistan, Terrorism, Terrorism in India, voter turnout, Warfare and Conflict, Youth

Does Mumbai deserve this?

“Terror has struck Mumbai again“. Every time there is a terrorist attack in the financial capital of India, most of the news stories on news papers and TV channels start with this headline. I wonder how many more times the same headline has to be repeated in the future. Mumbai and its people are the favorite target of the terror mongers. In last 20 years, more than 2500 innocent people have lost their lives in 92 blasts in Mumbai. Considering such bloody history, one would expect gradual improvements in the counter-terrorism strategies of the state. But the in reality nothing much has changed. Admittedly, some progress has been made in the post-attack response system after the 26/11 but the pre-attack system still lacks the teeth. The blast of 13th July, 2011 exposed India’s counter-terror efforts. The Home Minister of India admitted today that there was no intelligence input with the state agencies about the recent bomb blasts though he didn’t see this as an intelligence failure. Someone should have asked him how “no intelligence is not intelligence failure?”. Why is Mumbai a soft target for the terrorists? Why are our agencies still incompetent when it comes to fighting terrorism? Does Mumbai deserved to be bombed now and then? To be honest there is no definite answers to these questions.

Like the headlines after terrorist attacks on Mumbai, another kind of story that often clog the news space is that of the “indomitable and resolute” spirit of Mumbai. After each bomb blast case, we hear that the average Mumbaikar gets back to his normal life soon as if nothing has happened. Mumbai is often described as the example of resilience. Such sugar-coated words are used to convey the message that the Mumbaikar isn’t scared of any bomb blast or any terrorist. Candlelight vigils and human chains are organised to convey the message that public of Mumbai is united and terror acts can’t deter them. I don’t know whether the terrorists watch these acts and get any message, but these events give a false sense of pride and power to our people. People joining these events feel themselves to be Clark Kents who can turn into Supermen if terrorists dare to attack them at that moment. It is their good luck that terrorists have never attacked such events. One wonders why no other cities have such spirit that Mumbai possesses. Or may be no one talks about the resolute spirit of a Delhite or an Ahmedabadi. Do they talk about the strong Mumbaikars because Mumbai is a preferred target for frequent attacks? The spirit and all similar stuffs are nothing but myths. One who loses his friends or relatives in the attacks would never be able part of this spirit. And the unaffected ones have to get back to their real life as soon as possible to earn his daily living. It’s true for every city and not just for Mumbai. Just because Mumbai faces hardships more often, media and civil society propagates the myth that Mumbai is strong and ready to face such attacks again and again. Perhaps that’s why the city has to meet the onslaughts so often. The needless glorification of the myth that public of Mumbai is better than the public of any other city in getting back to natural course of life soon after damaging terror activities has made the people believe that they needn’t do anything more to avoid such attacks in the future.

But what can an average Mumbaikar do? Can he make and pass anti-terrorism bills? Can he fast track terror cases? Can he hang Afzal Guru or Kasab? Can he fill up all the vacancies in the Mumbai Police to improve the basic policing? No, he can’t because these are something the govt. is supposed to do. The govt. of Maharshtra. The govt. of Mumbai. What can the common public do if their govt doesn’t do these things? If their govt. doesn’t perform its duties, they can only light candles after returning from their offices and sleep at home with false satisfaction that they have done their part to fight terror. The fake Clark Kent inside themselves keeps them going till the next blast. What else they can do?

The only thing they can do is to make their government their government. Can the public of Maharashtra or Mumbai say that the govt. ruling the state is their govt. when only 40-50% of the legitimate voters vote in elections? Though every attack leads the youth of the city to express their anger towards the apathy of the govt. on the social media, friend circles or chai addas, it doesn’t lead them to the poll booths where they can express their anger in an effective way. The ‘resilient’ Mumbaikar needs to learn from the farmers of West Bengal who flocked the poll booths during elections to chose a better alternative. The public of Tamil Nadu expressed their anger against the corrupt ruling class in the state not by lighting candles but by giving their precious vote to someone who seemed better to them. If a corrupt Lalu Yadav empowered thanks to caste equations was shown the door, it was because the people of Bihar chose to get up and walk to the nearest polling station to express their anger. When the voters become proactive in a democracy, only then the political class gets serious about their jobs. When the politicians realise that their jobs are not secure as unsatisfied public can exercise its power, they will get back to their original job that is ‘to serve the people’. Till the moment people haven’t learned to seek accountability from their govt. during the elections, there is no point in creating outrage on different media. If the Mumbaikar is really strong and resilient, he can prove it not by lighting candles or ranting on twitter but by voting in the next election. Otherwise the same headlines will be repeated again and again and again.

The only way Rahul Gandhi can revive Congress fortunes in UP

Tags

Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Dalit, India, Indian National Congress, Mamata Banerjee, Narendra Modi, naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, Politician, politics, Prime minister, Rahul Gandhi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Sonia Gandhi, Uttar Pradesh

2012 UP election will be the biggest test for Rahul Gandhi (Photo: The Hindu)

While the Digvijay Singhs, Jayanti Natarajans and Manish Tewaris of the Congress party have started expressing their desire to see Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister of the country, Rahul is busy preparing for his next big test of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2012. Since his début in Indian politics, Rahul has invested so much politically in the state of UP that the upcoming state election is being seen as the make or break point in his political career. The recent Padyatra that Rahul undertook supporting the farmers’ cause against land acquisition is nothing but another effort to revive the Congress in UP. Expect Rahul Gandhi to spend more time in UP till the election next year. But all these efforts by Rahul and Co. may not yield the desired results for the party. There is one reason that still keeps Rahul Gandhi far away from the masses irrespective of how much effort he puts to come close to them and the same factor also stands between Congress and the power in the state. The factor we are talking here is the lack of regional leadership in UP.

Rahul Gandhi has made lots of attempts in recent years to woo the public of UP. In his initial days as a political leader, he was famous for visiting Dalit huts and eating food there. While the distance between the politicians and the public was growing, he wanted to show that he was a new age politician moving closer to the poor and Dalits. His real intention was to attract eye balls. Congress was almost nonexistent in the state and only thing it needed was more public attention. Rahul Gandhi being the next leader from the Neheru-Gandhi clan was able to draw the attention with his frequent visits to UP villages. The recent padyatra is also part of the same strategy with the motive to attract the attention of the voters. But the problem is that the attention doesn’t always convert into votes. Sure, he managed to get positive mileage out of the recent yatra for himself and his party and perhaps will manage more positive attention in the next one year, but the attention will not result in a significant number of votes to bring Congress into power or propel the party to at least the King-maker’s position.

But Why?

Rahul's Image: 'sports shoe wearing politician coming in SUVs from Delhi'

The reason is Rahul is still an outsider for the voters of UP. For a common UP voter, he is still a ‘sports shoe wearing politician drinking mineral water packaged in plastic bottles and coming in SUVs from Delhi’ to gather votes for his party. For the local voter, he is a national leader of Congress who is in the state for ensuring wins for the incompetent and useless local Congress leaders. People don’t vote looking at the national leader. Except the strong party workers and supporters, a common voter always votes considering the local issues and comparing the local leaders of different political parties. National leaders are always a secondary factor for a voter while deciding his vote. At best, the individual votes gets decided depending on the state level leaders of a party. There are a plenty of examples in Indian politics to prove this point. Most of the votes polled for BJP/NDA in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh or Bihar are because of the charisma of Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chouhan or Nitish Kumar. It is Tarun Gogoi whom the voters of Assam trusted which translated into a Congress victory in Assam. TMC in West Bengal, BJD in Odisha, AIDMK in Tamil Nadu rule because people of the respective states support Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalitha, all regional satraps. Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s clout is more than that of Sonia Gandhi/Manmohan Singh in the state of Haryana. The Andhra Pradesh was once a Congress stronghold for a regional leader like YSR Reddy. The UP Congress has neither a powerful regional leader nor a vibrant party cadre. Rahul Gandhi comes and goes back to Delhi and all the goodwill he earns through his yatras are lost due to lack of the local leadership. Perhaps that explains why despite a good show in the LS election in 2009, a recent internal poll predicted a disastrous assembly poll result for Congress in UP.

Then what should Rahul Gandhi do?

Political circles believe that Manmohan Singh is just managing the post of Prime Minister till Rahul gandhi is ready to takeover. 2012 election is important for Rahul Gandhi to be ready for the PM post in 2014 or later (of course if the world exists after 2012 ). So he can’t afford to miss this opportunity due to the lack of regional leadership in UP. Then what clould and should he do? Local cadre or a strong leader is not something that can be made overnight. Is it then the end for Rahul Gandhi’s high hopes off the UP elections?

No, there is still a way that may help Rahul’s aspirations. The only way Congress can revive its fortunes in UP is by declaring Rahul Gandhi as the CM candidate. Rahul Gandhi will anyway be very much involved in the decision-making of Congress for the state election, then why not make him the leader under which the party will fight the election? This will not only fill the void at the top of party’s state leadership, can also rejuvenate the dormant congress cadre in the state. Rahul Gandhi will not be considered as a national leader by the voters and his speeches, promises and actions will be taken seriously by the UP public. Rather than being just a flash in the pan, Rahul can have a long-lasting effect on the voters’ mind if Congress clearly declares the ‘PM in waiting’ as the ‘UP CM in waiting’. Using this path, Rahul can also get an opportunity to prove his mettle as a good administrator and able politician and convince the country that he deserves a chance to become the PM. A 5 years experience as the UP CM (if Congress manages to gather majority after the poll) can be included as an achievement in his otherwise a dud political CV. This way he can convince the country that he can be a PM not just because of his surname.

Will Rahul adopt this way?

There is definite risk involved in this path. The risk of failure. Anything sort of clear majority will be seen as a failure of Rahul Gandhi and this time he can be directly blamed for the loss. Even though he heavily influenced the poll strategy in Bihar and Tamil Nadu, he managed to escape the blame for the poor results. Escaping responsibilities has been the keyword in Rahul Gandhi’s lexicon so far and it is rather unexpected that he would be courageous enough to put himself in the direct line of fire in case Congress loses the UP election. The history of Nehru-Gandhi dynasty also shows how the members of the dynasty never take the difficult path to become the PM. While a non-Gandhi politician has to overcome many hurdles and gain experience by assuming several constitutional posts, a Gandhi surname holder is so soft to take the difficult path that he/she is airdropped to hold the post of PM even if without any previous experience of holding a constitutional post. If Rahul Gandhi decides the path his grand mother or father adopted, do not hope he taking the risk of making himself responsible for the UP assembly election outcome. But the young Gandhi must remember that if he can’t make himself ready for a CM post, the country can’t be ready to accept him as the PM of India.

UPDATE 1: This post has been selected for Blogadda’s Tangy Tuesday Picks. BlogAdda has started ‘Tangy Tuesdays’ and ‘Spicy Saturdays’ where BlogAdda picks up good posts from Indian blogosphere and serves it to the readers on Tuesdays and Saturdays. This way, good posts are acknowledged and readers get to read quality content. This is also an opportunity for everyone to interact even more in fruitful discussions. Thank you blogadda for selecting my post this week for the honour. 

UPDATE 2: BlogJunta has selected this blog post as one of the “BEST POSTS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY”. Blogjunta is one of its kind blogging service for the netizens of blogosphere . Currently it is concentrating to build a one stop shop for bloggers to get updates from the blogosphere. Thank you blogjunta for selecting my post this week for the honour. 

POSCO Realities

Tags

Foreign direct investment, Forest Rights Act, government, India, Jagatsinghpur, Jairam Ramesh, Memorandum of understanding, Odisha, Orissa, POSCO, Steel mill, Tata Steel

It's time to face the realities of POSCO

6 years ago, exactly on this day of June 22nd, the Govt. of Odisha signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the steel manufacturing giant POSCO for a Rs 51000 crore investment for a steel plant in the district of Jagatsinghpur. This project is still the biggest FDI of India. After a rule under former chief minister Janaki Ballav Pattnaik (of Congress, now rehabilitated as Governor of Assam after retirement) during which the state saw negative growth and became a place most unsuitable for industrialization (even if most of the country’s mineral lies under the soil of Odisha), such projects brought rays of hope for the people of Odisha. The state’s economy was in shambles and projects by companies like POSCO, TATA, Arcellor-Mittal were expected to boost its economy. Unfortunately, not a single of these big projects has moved an inch since the day the MoUs were signed.

Being the biggest FDI of the country, the center was also genuinely interested in having this project. Irrespective of the views of the state congress leaders the PMO pushed for the project. Yet POSCO had to face resistance from the villagers who protest the acquisition of land in the area. It also faced charges of violating forest rights act and after many years, the forest clearance was finally given by minister Jairam Ramesh. While the environmental issues are already settled, the problem of land acquisition has come to the fore. The state govt. after getting the requisite forest clearance moved ahead with the acquisition of the 4004 acres of land required by the South Korean company for the plant. Protests by villagers of one village using women and children as human shields has hit the national and international headlines. Govt. is on the back foot and has decided to stop the acquisition process. After 6 years, it is already too late. People of Odisha who were once ecstatic about the POSCO steel plant are now disgusted the way it is being resisted. It is time for the unawares as well as the anti-POSCO protesters to confront the realities of the POSCO plant and related issues. Being from Odisha, I hope I can present the facts well.

* The POSCO plant was allocated to the 4004 acres of land in Jagatsinghpur because these area had least private land. Of the 4004 acres, almost 3500 acres of land are govt. land. While the real owners of the lands have welcomed the plant and left their lands for the greater good of the state, the villagers encroaching the govt lands by farming betel on it are creating ruckus.

* The allegations of POSCO violating the forest rights act(passed in 2006, after the MoU signed) is baseless. It is alleged that the plant violates the clause 2(o) that declares that all those living on forest land for at least three generations (75 years), as well as forest dwelling scheduled tribes, have rights under the Act to use the land under occupation and/or cultivation. Around 3000 acres of the land marked for the plant are classified as the forest land(even though there is no forest on that land. How come betel is being farmed on that land if there exists a forest there?). But as per documents, the land was classified as forest land in the 1950s, so no chance of people living there for 75 years/3 generations.

* While the world wants to believe that the protests are voluntary ones by the villagers, the reality is different. One Abhay Sahoo, who doesn’t belong to the affected area came from nowhere and started leading this campaign. Why the villagers weren’t given a chance to decide their own fate? Why an outsider leader was needed to instigate the locals of that area?

* Political opportunism is the only adhesive that binds the political parties. This is true for the POSCO project. Have you ever seen Left, Congress and the BJP supporting same cause anywhere else? Well they are on the same page in case of POSCO agitation.

* Of all the villages that will get displaced by the project, every village except 2 support and welcome the investment. Only Dhinkia and Gobindpur are the two villages where the majority are not in favor of POSCO.

* The land activists may shout about their democratic rights. Then why they threw the pro-POSCO villagers out of their villages? Didn’t they have any right?

* The leaders who lead the dissented villagers never gave constructive suggestions to the govt. while discussions. They rejected a unique and the best rehabilitation policy laid by the govt without even giving the suggestions like what more they want. Why I call the rehabilitation and compensation package as the best in the country, you will know that when I mention some of its features in the next realities

*POSCO compensation package: Posco would pay the betel vine owners Rs 11.5 lakh per acre. The labourers working in the betel vines would get 20% of the compensation awarded to the owners.

*POSCO compensation package: POSCO would pay Rs 17 lakh per acre of agricultural land and Rs 2 lakh per acre used for prawn ponds.

* POSCO compensation package: The people who have encroached the govt. land would also get the compensation.

*POSCO compensation package: Labourers working in betel vines will get unemployment allowance of Rs 2,250 a month for a year, in case they don’t get work during the steel plant construction.

* POSCO compensation package: Each of the displaced undivided families would get 10 decimals land on which POSCO would build a three-bedroom house with a cowshed. Each displaced family would also be provided Rs 5,000 as transport cost.

* POSCO compensation package: Adult members of the families would be treated as a SEPARATE family and given 10 decimals of land each.

* POSCO compensation package: A member from each family would get a REGULAR job in the plant. if not, allowance of Rs 2300 per month as unemployment allowance.

* If this compensation package is anti-poor, then perhaps no package can ever satisfy the protesters. May be because the leaders of the protest have their on vested political interest to fuel the dissent against the govt.

* While everyone is keen to comparing the Gobindpur or Dhinkia with Nandigram and Singur, the reality is that the state has not used force yet. The govt. has done commendable job to secure peace in the area by keeping the police and the ruling party cadre in limit.

People should check realities first before jumping to conclusion. Odisha has lost so much in last 50 years even if it has so much natural resources with it. Dear Medha, Gurudas, Agnivesh, D Raja and all outsourced leaders, please don’t dismantle the industrialization process which has been peaceful so far. We are a slow progressing state; don’t make us a ZERO progressing state. And dear protesters at the protest site, please send your children to the schools instead of bringing them to form human rings to confront with the police. Do you also want them to rot in poverty like you?

Explanation of the custom of not taking food during Solar/Lunar eclipse

Tags

Astronomy, Earth, Eclipse, Eclipses Occultations and Transits, India, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Lunar eclipse, Moon, Rahu, Science vs Superstitions

[Disclaimer: This is *MY* explanation of the custom of not taking any food widely adopted by the Hindus during the solar and lunar eclipses. You are free to agree or disagree with my viewpoint. I don't claim this explanation to be perfect. This explanation is totally based on my beliefs and interpretations of events]

 

Image Courtesy: IBNLIVE

Yesterday, we witnessed the longest lunar eclipse of the century. With every eclipse, solar or lunar, the science vs superstition debate comes to the fore. It happens mainly because of the way households across India force an old custom of ‘not taking/preparing food during the eclipse period’. I don’t believe in this tradition simply because the reason cited for following it. The common reason cited is that the food taken during the eclipse period has ill effects on one’s health. It is really unbelievable and absurd as scientific studies have disproved such theories. In fact, many people take food during the occultation and they don’t face any health troubles. One doesn’t need to be a science genius to realise that one celestial body blocking light rays coming from another celestial body can’t cause any effect to the food prepared on the earth. Still people blinded by superstitions follow such rules without even asking for justification. Well, one can’t stop others from believing in (unfounded) traditions, but in the age of science trusting something without asking for valid reasons is stupid. I spent some time thinking about this particular tradition. Why did the religion include this in its to do/not to do list? Is this tradition wrong and based on no legitimate explanation?

I have a very different perspective about the religion. For me, religion is not about Gods but about people. I feel (and believe) that when people started forming societies, some of them assumed the position of the leaders of the society. They framed certain rules for other members so that everyone can lead a peaceful and prosperous life maintaining peace in the society. Those rules are effectively being called as religion. The then leaders framed rules considering the realities of that age. With changing realities of time, religion(which I defined as the set of rules that binds the society) accepts changes. What I define as religion is conceived as culture by many. To me, culture and religion are just two different names describing the same thing.

Now coming to the particular case of this belief followed during the eclipse period: so what explains having this rule in the religion? Is there any explanation at all? I guess, there is. Not one, but 3 reasons why there is nothing wrong in the tradition of not preparing and eating food during the eclipse.

Close interpretation of the case will make it clear that the reason cited by the followers is not the real reason. The tradition exempts the old, patients and children from fasting during the eclipse period. If religion believed that taking food in a particular period actually affects one’s health adversely, then this part of the society(old, children and patients) would have been the first whom the religion would have tried to save from the adverse effects. What is the message then? This tradition is actually an ‘experiment’ by the society which everyone need not follow. So the dubitable reason cited is false and the real reason for having this ‘experiment’ is something else. Following are the 3 reasons which I believe to be the real cause of having this rule:

1. To control diet: It is very well known how fasting helps one’s overall health. Fasting or to put it in better terms ‘not taking food occasionally’ is often prescribed by doctors too. Fasting once in a week/month is often adopted by people as part of their diet plan. Doesn’t the tradition fit into this scheme? If you see the list ‘Upavasas’ (fasting schedule) in Hindu religion, you can notice that there is at least one day every month when the religion expects you to fast (but doesn’t force you to do it). Eclipses are just another occasion the religion identified to promote this way of diet controlling. Many don’t take controlling diet seriously, perhaps that’s why the religion promoted it in the name of fasting during several occasions with eclipses being one of them.

2. To promote savings: This reason sounds more appropriate than the previous one. I’m sure many of you must have some idea about late prime minister Lal Bahadur Shastri’s concept of weekly fasting to promote savings. Why can’t Hinduism’s(for that matter of any religion) idea of fasting be based on promoting the habit of savings among the society members?

3. To give people some time off from the busy life: It is also widely believed that no important work should be done during the eclipse period. Similarly, food is also not made during this period. So all the family members, male and female, actually get some time off from their busy schedule. Those were the times when there was no TV or internet to spend your spare time. So the spare time due to the no work time period might be used by people to interact with each other, to discuss problems of one’s family or of the society. Solar and lunar eclipses happen at least 5-6 times a year. So effectively it means 5-6 days off in a year for everyone to use that time in some good work for one’s family or the society.

I just tried to explain possible reasons fo which the rule is in force. The custom is not a superstition but the reason being shown is one. With the improvement of science, these days no one believes the stories of Rahu or Ketu eating the sun and the moon. People should also do away with the beliefs that are adverse to scientific thinking. There is no place of unjustified beliefs in the society. Not taking food during the solar or lunar eclipse can be followed by the people who want to follow it because it has its justifications. But not  because of the beliefs that are unreasonable.

On that note, I leave you with some exciting pictures of yesterday’s lunar eclipse:

Different phases of the eclipse(Photo: Huffington Post)

Spectacular view (Photo: space.com)

(Photo: space.com)

Crackdown on Baba Ramdev may shut the doors for UPA-III

Tags

Bharatiya Janata Party, government, India, Jallianwala Bagh, New Delhi, Ramlila, Sangh Parivar, Swami Ramdev, United Progressive Alliance

Crackdown on Ramdev's Protest may prove to be suicidal for the Congress

Even the staunch Congress fans couldn’t support the midnight crackdown on Baba Ramdev’s Yog shivir at the Ramlila Maidan, New Delhi on the 5^th June. Baba’s campaign against corruption was at least debatable, but the act of the government was absolutely shocking and disgraceful. No wonder, Congress spokespersons remained conspicuously absent from all TV debates for one long day instead of defending their govt.’s act. It may not be a “repeat of Jallianwala Bagh” or “Ravan Leela” but a shameful trick by a frustrated govt.

I will not go back to how the Congress led govt. first tried to use Baba Ramdev to counterbalance Anna’s team. Perhaps when Anna joined hands with Ramdev and chances of Ramdev backing down receded, the government saw its plans foiling. It had to pull out another trick to contain the Baba but the trick seems to have produced opposite results. I don’t think that the plan is over now with just forceful eviction of Ramdev. Most probably, now the government will go after Ramdev and many accusations against the ‘Raj-Yogi’ will surface in the recent future (remember what happened to Bhushans after the successful Anna movement?). The government machineries will now be hell-bent to prove that Ramdev is actually a “thug”. But the problem in front of the ruling alliance is that it has already put its hands in the beehive which, most likely, is going to sting it many times in the future.

The reason is political. There is no doubt (in my mind) that Ramdev’s protest was a politically motivated one (is that wrong by the way?) even if Team Ramdev wanted us to believe otherwise and most probably propped by the RSS and a reluctant BJP. While popular blogger offstumped believes that powering Ramdev and using his fan base may actually help Congress and cut into BJP’s loyal vote base in the north India, the belief is unfounded, I feel. If there is actually a deal between RSS and Team Ramdev, they must have agreed not to weaken the (undeclared) political wing of RSS: the BJP. If BJP supported Ramdev’s cause, then they must have got an assurance from the RSS that Ramdev won’t be a threat in the future rather he would help by creating an anti-congress wind in the poll bound Uttar Pradesh, if not in the north India. After the brutal act on him, Ramdev will now be firmly on the side of the RSS/BJP. The Sangh Parivar has expectedly reciprocated the gesture.

So what’s next? Can Ramdev really bring down UPA-2? Can Ramdev close the doors for the UPA-3? Yes and let me show you how. The biggest power of Ramdev is his religious stardom. India, however modern it becomes, will always have sympathy and respect for its religious leaders. People or institutions taking on religious gurus are not welcome for many in this country. I realized this after I wrote a post criticizing late Satya Sai’s works and methods to garner followers. Even people who are not Sai believers criticized me for writing the article. Neither my family members (again not Sai Bhakts) nor many of my friends were supportive. Close friends and well-wishers suggested me not to write on religious leaders even if they are crooks. And mind you most of these well-wishers were the modern young Indians. So it is a false notion that the modern youth is not religious. Now if a simple post from a relatively unknown blogger like me could provoke such strong reactions, imagine what would be the reaction after harsh govt. action against a very popular Baba Ramdev? And to make matters worse for the UPA, the country saw the Yogi crying on the live television. It won’t be surprising if more undecided fence sitters turn against Congress in next few months.

Another point that may well play in favor of Ramdev is that he was standing against the corruption when “arguably the most corrupt government in Indian history” tried to strike him down. The public anger against the corruption is at all time high at the moment and if an allegedly corrupt government is seen as the force to unsettle movements against corruption, then it won’t be shocking if the anger converts into votes.

This religion and corruption combo is what Ramdev and his backroom managers tried to implement. The same combo will now be handy to dismantle the Congress plans for 2014. Congress has thrived because of its wide rural support. And Ramdev can erode the same rural support base what the urban favorite BJP can’t. The public in rural areas don’t go to details, they don’t take interest to know if Ramdev had a solution (to finish corruption or to bring black money back) or not. The message they will get after this incident is that the sitting government tried to shut the voice of their favorite religious leader who dared to speak against the misdeeds of the people in power. Can you hear the death knell?

[This post first appeared as a guest post on Ashik Gosaliya's blog ashikgosaliya.in on the 6th June. You can find that post here]

Why Sonia Gandhi should lose the 2014 general elections

Tags

Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Blogadda, Congress Working Committee, LokSabha, Manmohan Singh, P Chidambaram, Pranab Mukherjee, Prime minister, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Tamil Nadu, TangyTuesday, United Progressive Alliance

The mother-son duo will have to wait

Why Sonia Gandhi would like to sit in the opposition in the next Lok Sabha!

It sounds weird, isn’t it? Why would the president of a national political party like to lose the general elections of the country? Not sure, if Sonia Gandhi really thinks so, but I would certainly suggest her to do so for the benefit of her party and accession of his son to the post of prime minister. Losing the 2014 election can be the sacrifice by Sonia Gandhi to avoid unstable and damaging situations for the Congress post-2014. As they say, “Kuch pane ke liye kuch khona padta hai (You have to sacrifice something to gain something).” If Sonia Gandhi decides to sacrifice the dream to win the 2014 elections, it will help her in the long run. Let me explain how.

The bigger picture for the 2014 is still not much clear. The recent results of the 5 state elections too haven’t given any clear indication regarding the grand finale that is scheduled in 2014. As the national parties Congress and BJP had not much at stake in these elections, these results won’t impact the national scenario after 3 years. The results of these five states have some indications for the Congress though. On the face, it may look like a Congress led UPA victory in 4 out of 5 states that went for poll but the results may increase the problems for the Congress high command. Mamata Banarjee with a clear majority on her own will now grow bigger in the UPA and won’t think much to jump off the UPA ship if she gets a hint that the ship will sink. A close contest in Kerala must have surprised the Congress leaders too. A sound drubbing at the hands of the voters of Tamil Nadu will also force them to rethink about their poll equations. With a fast growing ally in Trinamool and fast diminishing ally in DMK (these two are Congress’ biggest ally in this UPA), the power equations of Congress may get unbalanced. The sound victory in Assam may not mean much as Assam’s influence on the national scene is very limited.

But what will worry the grand old party the most is the indefensible charges of corruption. The opposition parties will not let such powerful ammunition slip out of their hands and most certainly keep the issues of corruption burning till the general elections. So far the opposition has done fairly good job to embarrass the govt. using the corruption complaints. With elections approaching, an aggressive and hungry for power BJP may trouble the Manmohan Singh govt. the most. The internal situations of the Congress will add to the woes of the govt. And the only way to tackle these situations is by sitting in the opposition in the next Lok Sabha.

It is very much unlikely that the Congress will fight the next election with Manmohan Singh as the candidate for the PM post. This is for A. his age of 81 (in 2014) and Congress’ agenda to attract youth will not be coherent and B. with Manmohan Singh the image of a helpless PM not being able to control his ministers from creating new scams will persist which the Congress would like to do away with. Congress may strike a deal with Manmohan with an offer of the President of India post in the future and look for other alternatives for the PM post.

If not Manmohan, then who? Sonia Gandhi will not like to destroy the image she has created for her by ‘sacrificing’ the PM post in 2004 by making herself available for the same post in 2014. Then Rahul Gandhi? Absolutely no chance. (A piece of advice to the BJP here: Don’t waste too much of your energy before Rahul Gandhi). Chances of Rahul being made the PM candidate in 2014 is next to zero. With no experience, no crucial political achievement to his name, Sonia Gandhi (and Rahul too) should know that the move to fight election with the prince charming as the Prime Ministerial candidate will be a huge blunder. The charges of dynastic politics will sound more credible if Sonia Gandhi plans to impose her inexperienced son as the proposed PM. While it is no secret that she wishes to see Rahul as the PM but she has to wait. With failure of the ‘young’ Gandhi to garner votes in Bihar, Tamil Nadu (where he participated in the poll preparations actively), the accession plan of Rahul Gandh has gone horribly wrong. And this is the biggest worry for the Congress. They are left with a few names: Pranab Mukerjee, P Chidambaram. Pranab Mukerjee had declared that he wouldn’t remain active in politics in the next Lok Sabha. Still he may decide to bail out Congress from the leadership dilemma if Congress leadership requests him. (Pranab da’s prime ministerial aspirations are no secret). But again his age doesn’t fit into Congress’ long term youth centric (read Rahul centric) plans. Again the other contender P Chidambaram will try his best to stop Pranab and make ground clear for his rise to the top post.

But P Chidambaram will be a thorn in flesh for Rahul Gandhi’s future plans. If P Chidambaram becomes the PM, his power in the congress circles will reach to ultimate level and he being young can also hijack the whole Congress youth strategies. Even if Congress is ousted from power in 2019 elections, it will be tough to reduce PC’s size unless Chidu himself makes some awful mistakes.

Call it irony, but India’s oldest political party depends too much on the Gandhi dynasty for unity among its ranks. Congress was a divided house before Sonia agreed to lead it and same may happen if anyone other than Rahul Gandhi becomes its leader (Shameful, isn’t it?). And as we discussed above Rahul can’t take that place in 2014. Rahul Gandhi can be given the leader of opposition post after the 2014 election. He can learn and increase his experience by performing his job of a democratic post. He can also earn public goodwill and make his PM candidature strong for the next election. Something what Sonia Gandhi did before defeating the NDA government in 2004. Considering these scenarios, losing the 2014 Lok Sabha election is the safest option in front of Sonia Gandhi. For the long run benefit, she has to do this unthinkable: plan to lose an election. By the way if the public of India makes its mind to show Congress the exit path, she need not even administer this option.

[This post first appeared as a guest post on Ashik Gosaliya's blog ashikgosaliya.in. You can find that post here]

UPDATE: This post has been selected for Blogadda’s Tangy Tuesday Picks. BlogAdda has started ‘Tangy Tuesdays’ and ‘Spicy Saturdays’ where BlogAdda picks up good posts from Indian blogosphere and serves it to the readers on Tuesdays and Saturdays. This way, good posts are acknowledged and readers get to read quality content. This is also an opportunity for everyone to interact even more in fruitful discussions. Thank you blogadda for selecting my post this week for the honour.

Osama Dead. Are we safe now?

Tags

Abbottabad, Al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Barack Obama, Ilyas Kashmiri, Islamabad, Osama bin Laden, Pakistan, Terrorism, United States, Warfare and Conflict, White House

Osama's Death: Symbolic victory for Justice! (Image Courtesy: AP/Getty Images)

“Justice has been done,” President Barack Obama announced in a press conference and declared the success of the US army which managed to kill the most dreaded terrorist of the world in a military operation in the city of Abbottabad in Pakistan. The mastermind of 9/11 terror strike, who defied all the efforts by world’s strongest army and the intelligence for more than 9 years, was the most wanted terrorist of the world and his death has brought cheers to many. Ecstatic celebrations in US were reported even though it was late in night in the country when the  biggest news of this year broke. Not just for the US, people of most of the countries may feel relieved now as the elusive Al Qaeda leader met his end.

Osama was found in a luxurious mansion

But the incident raises a few telling questions. It is said that the information about this US operation was not shared with the Pakistan authorities. U.S. officials said that Pakistani authorities were told the details of the raid after it had taken place. Why the US army did not trust the local authority for helping in the operation? The Pakistan has also raised the question of sovereignty and dubbed this attack as a threat to the its sovereignty. Effort seen as to counter the criticism of hiding Osama. Again the city of Abbottabad is around 100 km away from the Pakistan’s capital city of Islamabad. It is indeed interesting that Pakistani agencies claim that they had no idea about Osama’s presence in an urban area so near to the capital. General Pervez Musharraf has expressed his surprise over the news that Osama was in Abbottabad. Can the Pak intelligence be so inept? Or did Pakistan hide Osama in its own territory as speculated by experts? Whatever may Pakistan’s response be, there is obvious cloud over Pakistan’s credibility. This may also strain its relationship with the US. This also substantiate India’s age old allegations against the Pakistan that its soil is used by the terror organistations growth. The most notorious terrorist of the world was able to defy the US administration for 9 years and 7 months and now if he is found in Pakistan, it can’t be believed that Pakistan had no clue about Laden’s movements. Sudden arrest of Osama’s six children, two wives in Pakistan after Osama’s death also gives credence to the allegations that Pakistan was very much aware about Osama’s place. It is anybody’s guess that Osama survived for all these years thanks to the Pakistan army patronage.

But the bigger question is: are we any safer after Osama’s death? Is this the end of Jihad? Will there be no more killings of innocents  in the name of holy religious war? The answer may not be a very positive one. True, this symbolic victory will go down in the history as an golden moment in the counter-terrorism operation. But is it going to help in the long run? Perhaps not. World terrorism scenario had already moved on beyond Osama. Al Qaeda’s succession plans were ready much before. New terrorists have already assumed the leadership role. Ayman al-Zawahri, Ilyas Kashmiri and many others have risen in last few years to take it from Osama. It is noteworthy that Osama’s health had kept him away from the intense planning and execution of Al Qaeda’s plans. He was not so active for last several years but the terror activities hadn’t slowed down. It was because Al Qaeda was already on its future game plan as they had realised that they had to move beyond Osama in near future. In that context, Osama’s killings may not be anything more than closure for the 9/11 and other attack victims. In fact, as I am writing this news of Taliban leaders threatening revenge for their leader’s death is coming. Killing of Osama may also act as a catalyst for the violence mongers instead of a deterrent. It was being reported for few years that Osama and Al Qaeda had some bigger plans in the pipeline and it won’t be surprising at all if Al Qaeda expedites those plans.

Terrorism has grown to such an extent that it is almost impossible to contain it at this point. Though the end of Osama has given us a reason to feel good, practically it will not help the anti-terrorism cause in the long term. No, we are still not safe.