General Election Results 2014: Live Blog

The General Election 2014 is rightly termed as a historic one because this election was largely fought on the issues of development and governance. Seemingly, a large chunk of the population moved out of the influence of caste and communal influence while deciding his vote. While this is a positive sign for the Indian democracy in the long run, whether the ‘good governance’ ploy won the confidence of the people of India will be known in a few hours from now when the votes are counted. Join us for Live updates and insights on General Election Results 2014.

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GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS 2014: LIVE UPDATES

 

Alliance	Wins/Leads
NDA	335
UPA	61
Others	147
Total Leads/wins	543

19:11: I wrap up this live blogging as I will go out now to celebrate this landmark verdict. Thank you to all those who joined us. Also, congratulations to Narendra Modi and BJP for all the hard work during the campaign. Also congratulations to Today’s Chanakya which got the figures right.

18:10: Narendra Modi addressing people in Vadodara after an emphatic win in Lok Sabha polls

16:45: Rahul Gandhi concedes defeat, wishes the next government well

16:30: Kejriwal accepts defeat, but says it is a good beginning for Aam Aadmi Party. Sonia Gandhi to meet press soon

15:03: Shiv Sena’s Arvind Sawant defeats Milind Deora in Mumbai South

14:52: Salman Khurshid defeated, loses deposit

14:50: Maharashtra Industries minister Narayan Rane resigns

14:48: Rajanikanth tweets and congratulates Jayalalitha and Narendra Modi

14:47: Sonia Gandhi wins from Rae Bareily. Poonam Mahajan wins from Mumbai North Central

14:43: BJD sweeps Odisha in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections

14:42: Kamalnath wins Chindwara by 1.2 lakh votes, Mallikarjun Kharge trails in Gulbarga

14:29: Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samajwadi Party) leads in Azamgarh and Mainpuri

14:26: Congress’s Captain Amarinder Singh beats BJP’s Arun Jaitley in Amritsar

14:21: Rahul Gandhi consolidating his lead in Amethi. Ahead of Smriti Irani by 90000 votes

13:28: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh calls Narendra Modi and congratulates him on his victory in the Lok Sabha elections.

13:27: BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi leads in Kanpur against Union Minister Jaiswal

13:23: BJP’s Minakshi Lekhi wins New Delhi seat. Narendra Modi’s victory margin in Vadodara confirmed as 5+ lakh votes

13:11: BJP’s Ananth Kumar defeats Congress’s Nandan Nilekani by winning sixth consecutive time from Bangalore South.

13:10: BJP’s Harsh Vardhan wins by more than 1 lakh votes from Chandni Chowk constituency in Delhi.

13:07: “Thank the people of Tamil Nadu who gave us this great victory. I wish the new govt. and the new PM well. I hope the new govt. will be friendly towards Tamil Nadu” -AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa

13:03: BJP’s Arun Jaitley loses in Amritsar, only setback to BJP on the counting day

13:02: Congress’ Kamalnath wins from Chindwara

12:13: Narendra Modi tweets, “India has won! Achche din aanewale hain”

12:12: Narendra Modi reaches his mother’s home in Gandhinagar. To seek her blessings

12:07: Narendra Modi to be elected as leader of BJP parliamentary team.

12:05: Gen. VK Singh wins Ghaziabad

11:48: Big Congress leaders trailing: Milind Deora, Mukul Wasnik, Priya Dutt, Sanjay Nirupam, Salman Khurshid, Sushil Shinde, Naveen Jindal

11:47: Narendra Modi to visit his mother and seek her blessings. Then will head to Vadodara for victory roadshow

11:44: Narendra Modi wins Varanasi

11:43: Rahul Gandhi leading by 14000 votes only. Rahul had won Amethi by 3 lakh+ margin in 2009

11:40: AAP’s Bhagwant Mann wins Sangrur

11:30: BJP in BIG 6 states: MP 26/29, Rajasthan 25/25, Gujarat 26/26, Bihar 27/40, UP 67/80. Total 211/248

11:26: BJP 25/25 in Rajasthan, 26/29 in Madhya Pradesh

11:16: BJP reaches 272 mark on its own. Congress concedes defeat

10:51: Arun Jaitley trailing by 30000 votes in Amritsar, Narendra Modi leading in Varanasi by 30000 votes

10:44: Salman Khurshid at 5th position in Murshidabad, Mulayam Singh Yadav at no. 3 in Azamgarh. Signs of Modi Tsunami

10:43: Narendra Modi wins Vadodara by more than 4 lakh seats

10:41: BJP 26/26 in Gujarat.

10:19: Varun Gandhi wins in Sultanpur

10:00: BJP touches 272 mark on its own. Congratulation Narendra Modi!

09:44: This is not Modi wave, this is Modi TSUNAMI

09:41: Narendra Modi have a lead of 2 lakh plus now

09:41: NDA reaches simple majority mark of 272. May breach the 300 seats now

09:40: Bihar leading in 30 seats of 40 seats in Bihar

09:35: Ajit SIngh loses to BJP’s Satyapal Singh in Baghpat

09:30: BJP leading in all 7 seats in Delhi

09:28: Mulayam Singh Yadav leading in Mainpuri, Trailing in Azamgarh. Jaya Prada leading in Bijnaur

09:27: Smriti Irani leads from Amethi once again. Narendra Modi has a 1 lakh+ lead in Vadodara, comfortably ahead in Varanasi as well

09:20: SENSEX up by 1000 points

09:15:  NDA is ahead in 148 rural seats

09:10: Leads: Sushma Swaraj in Vidisha, Murli Manohar Joshi in Kanpur, Sanjay Nirupam in North Mumbai, Varun Gandhi in Sultanpur, Rajnath Singh in Lucknow, Shanawaz Hussain in Bhagalpur, Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareily

09:05: SENSEX up 280 points, NIFTY up by 116 points

09:01: O Rajgopal ahead of Sashi Tharoor now, Rahul Gandhi ahead of Smriti Irani at the moment

09:00: Ghulam Nabi Azad ahead in Uddhampur. Kirron Kher ahead in Chandigarh. LK Advani ahead in Gandhi Nagar

08:55: BJP ahead in Gurgaon, Yogendra Yadav trails. Chirag Paswan ahead in Jamui

08:52: Smriti Irani leads, Rahul Gandhi trails in Amethi

08:45: NDA 137 UPA 41 Others 28
08:41: Celebration starts already in BJP offices across the country

08:40: Meira Kumar trails from Sasaram

08:30: Kejriwal trailing from Varanasi

08:25: Uma Bharti and Anurag Thakur lead from their seats
08:21: NDA 31, UPA 12
08:20: Narendra Modi leads from Vadodara
08:15: VK Singh leads from Ghaziabad, Shashi Tharoor trails from Thiruvanathapuram
08:01: Postal ballots to be counted first
08:00: Counting of votes across all centers begins.

Projections for 21 Lok Sabha seats of Odisha #Elections2014

The historic general elections 2014 are coming to an end and everyone is now waiting for the results on the May 16th. In Odisha, the elections for the 21 Lok Sabha seats and 147 assembly seats happened simultaneously. The two phase elections in the state ended on April 17th with almost a month to go for the result day. This election is important for Odisha as the incumbent Chief Minister Naveen Pattnaik is seeking mandate for a record fourth term in the office. There are intense speculations going on among many whether BJD can repeat its magic in the elections and how will national parties like BJP and Congress will fare.

Being a political enthusiast from Odisha, I conducted a constituency wise research and tried to understand the political current in each of the 21 LS constituency. Based on that research, I have tried to predict the outcome the results in these seats. At this point I should make it clear that these are not based on any sample surveys and no statistical tool has been used. The research is based on my understanding of Odisha politics. I have already posted this on twitter & facebook on April 17th, 6 pm itself. Sharing the seat projections again on this blog to properly document the projection with detailed explanation.

Before I get to the constituency wise prediction, here are my five major observations about the Odisha elections 2014.

1. Historically, people of Odisha do not vote on the basis of caste or religion. But personality and charisma of a leader influences voting pattern very much. That explains why the people of Odisha are smitten by the Naveen Pattnaik phenomenon for last 14 years.

2. People want Odisha to have a larger voice at the national stage. Many people (especially in urban areas) are of of the view that by not aligning with any major political formation at the center, BJD has failed to bring big opportunities for Odisha in last 5 years. There’s a definite drop in the BJD’s popularity ratings when compared to 2009 when it got its best ever results.

3. Even after the BJD rule of 3 terms, there is no love lost between the 3.5 cr population of Odisha and Naveen Pattnaik. Despite the early hopes in the Congress camps of being able to corner BJD this time, factional feud ensured that state congress unit’s constant decline continues. The state of Congress in Odisha can be gauged from the very fact that the Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh joined BJD just before the elections. Delhi High Command’s mishandling of the state unit by tusting inefficient and unpopular leaders like Jayadev Jena and ignoring senior congress leaders’ opinion led to around 20 plus major leaders’ departure from the party just before the election.

4. Majority of Odias want Narendra Modi as the PM of India. However, due to the weak structure of BJP in the state, many voted for BJD owing to the TINA factor. There are also many constituencies (mostly western Odisha and some of the urban pockets in the coastal Odisha) voted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha thanks to the Modi wave, but chose BJD in their respective assembly seats.

5. The ‘Modi for Center, Naveen for state’ trend was heavily observed in case of the youth. Voters in the age group 18-30 are the most vocal supporters of Modi in Odisha. Many young voters voted for BJP without even knowing the name of the BJP candidate in their constituency. BJP has also recovered some of its party structure in its traditional base of western Odisha which it had lost to BJD during its alliance government. One can expect at least 5-10% vote swing in favor of the BJP this time.

Now let’s move towards the projections now.

Final Projection for all 21 seats

*Update (14th May):Figures of the leading Exit Polls for Odisha is as follows.

Exit Polls	LS Seats Predictions for Odisha
	BJD	BJP	INC
CNN IBN-CSDS	12-16	3-7	1-3
Aaj Tak-CICERO	10-14	5-9	1-3
ABP-Nielsen	9	10	2
Times Now-ORG	14	2	5
New 24-Today’s Chanakya	12	8	1
India TV-C Voter	11	6	4
Satta Market (for BJP)	—	5	—

 

Detailed explanation for each constituency is provided below.

Constituency	2014 Prediction	2009	Remarks
Phase-I
Bargarh	BJP	Cong	BJD is not in the race here for the LS. Many BJD loyalists (including workers) voted for BJP candidate to defeat Congress MP Sanjay Bhoi
Sundargarh	BJP	Cong	Sundargarh is BJP’s secure seat. Jual Oram had lost this seat by a margin of 0.5% votes last time. Long time respected leader in this area
Sambalpur	BJP	Cong	Modi’s rally here was a major boost in a constituency which was already leaning towards the BJP
Bolangir	BJD	BJD	While BJP’s Sangeeta Singhdeo is expected to do better in urban areas, the prince of the Bolangir royal family Kalikesh Singhdeo is expected to retain the seat in a tight battle.
Kalahandi	Cong	Cong	Kalahandi is witnessing a tough triangular fight. Congress’ Bhakta Charan Das is a veteran leader in this area with many loyal supporters. BJP’s surge riding the Modi wave will hurt BJD’s chances here
Nabarangpur	Cong	Cong	Maoist affected Nabarangpur shocked everyone with 82% voter turnout. Historically, a Congress bastion, Congress’ Pradeep Majhi is expected to retain the seat as the BJP’s surge is again expected to curtail the BJD hopes here
Kandhamal	BJP	BJD	While BJP is ahead in the G Udayagiri and Baliguda segments, BJD is strong in Phulbani and Boudh segments in this communally sensitive constituency. This is a very close battle which I believe should go in favor of the BJP
Aska	BJD	BJD	Considered as BJD’s fort, Aska is secured for BJD
Berhampur	Cong	BJD	Popular movie actor Siddhant Mohapatra shocked everyone last time by defeating veteran Congress leader Chandrasekhar Sahu. Traditionally a Congress seat (Congress has lost here only twice) will return to Sahu again as BJD’s Sidhant’s popularity has dropped due to his prolonged absence from the constituency.
Koraput	BJD	BJD	Another Congress bastion which was breached for the first time ever by BJD in 2009. However, Koraput is expected to repose its trust in BJD once again
Phase-II
Keonjhar	BJD	BJD	Famous for mining activities, Keonjhar, which was once a BJP seat has shifted its allegiance towards BJD lately.
Mayurbhanj	BJD	BJD	Sudam Marandi (previously in JMM) joining BJD will further help BJD in Mayurbhanj. One of the few constituencies where BJD may increase its victory margin compared to last time
Balasore	BJP	Cong	Odisha’s lone minister in the UPA-II, Srikant Jena had won Balasore last time gaining from a fierce fight between BJD and BJP. This time around, Srikant Jena has lost the trust of the local Congress cadre. He is unpopular among the common people as well. BJP’s Pratap Sarangi has an image of incorruptible and selfless social worker which is helping him. He has a connect with the grass-root which his opponent from the BJD lacks.
Bhadrak	BJD	BJD	The main battle is between the BJD and the Congress. The 7 time MP Arjun Charan Sethi is expected to win the seat for straight 5th time.
Jajpur	BJD	BJD	An interesting constituency to watch as two powerful factions of the BJD have locked horns here because of ticket distribution. A completely unknown and inexperienced candidate Rita Tarai has been fielded by the BJD as a result. However, the BJP and Congress are so weak here that BJD may get votes by default. BJP may replace Congress at the second place
Dhenkanal	BJP	BJD	BJP has never won Dhenkanal which has traditionally shifted between Congress and BJD (Janata Dal in past). Though BJD has repeated its 3 time MP Tathagata Satpathy, BJP’s Rudra Pany has made huge gains if ground reports are to be believed. Many Congress workers have switched allegiance and working for Pany’s win here. Though a very close call to make, I feel Modi wave will help BJP making new ground here.
Cuttack	BJD	BJD	4 time MP from Cuttack, Bhartruhari Mahatab of BJD who won the last election by a margin of 2.36 lakhs votes is not expected to face any opposition from Congress or BJP
Kendrapara	BJD	BJD	Kendrapara is considered as the fort of anti-congress politics in Odisha. Congress has never won Kendrapara since 1957. Baijayant ‘Jay’ Panda, who is considered as the face of Odisha in Delhi, should win handsomely here.
Jagatsinghpur	BJD	CPI	BJD has left this seat to its alliance partner CPI last time. BJD’s Dr. Kulamani Samal shouldn’t face any resistance to win this coastal district
Puri	BJD	BJD	Ace Supreme Court lawyer Pinaki Mishra is fighting from this electoral fort of BJD. Congress’ new face Sanchita Mohanty is not even in the picture anywhere.
Bhubaneswar	BJD	BJD	Baba Prasanna Patsani is immensely popular because of his saffron attire and humorous speeches. Thanks to his and his party BJD’s popularity, Patsani doesn’t campaign much but has been winning this seat easily. Patsani managed to get the BJD ticket after a lot of consultation among the BJD ranks to give a new face a chance. The rethink was due to Congress fielding a veteran cine artist Bijay Mohanty and BJP’s young (and unknown) Pruthwiraj Harichandan riding the Modi wave. In Bhubaneswar City, a big number of voters voted for BJP in the Lok Sabha even though they didn’t know anything about Harichandan. But with only 40% voting in the city, and BJD’s Patsani being popular among the rural voters, Patsani will retain Bhubaneswar.