Bihar Election 2010 was one of those rare elections whose outcome was known even before the first vote was casted. Everyone knew the direction of the wind, only thing everyone was interested to know was the victory margin by the incumbent JDU-BJP alliance NDA govt. Now when almost all results are available, Nitish Kumar is all set to lead the second successive govt. in Bihar. Overall these results were not unexpected, but if you analyse the results for each party there are certainly some surprising elements. Before analyzing the results further, let’s take a look at it.
[As per Results+Leads available at 5pm 24th November, 2010]
(Image Courtesy: India Today)
We too had done a projection long back which indicated NDA’s win though such a margin was unexpected. Probably, we had understated the will of people of Bihar to get a better governance. NDA went past all expectations and is set to get three-fourth majority in the assembly which they deserve considering the developmental politics of the regime. Such a land slide victory will now help the govt. to go further in scripting a new story for Bihar. As I had tweeted in the morning,
This is Bihar’s 2nd step towards shunning the BIMARU tag. 1st step was taken in 2005.
This post will not be long one as there is nothing much to analyse in this results. What else can you say when an alliance wins 201 seats out of 243? Had there been a resistance from the opposition, there would have been some material to analyse. Only surprise element of this results is the extra-ordinary success of the BJP. The party’s strike rate is better than that of JDU. JDU fought on 139 seats, won 111with a strike rate of around 80%. At the same time its ‘junior’ partner BJP fought 102 and won 91. so a strike rate of 88%. It is not just about the strike rate. When it comes to gaining seats, again the BJP has surpassed Nitish’s JDU. JDU’s 23 gains than last assembly(25% growth) looks much smaller than BJP’s 36(66% growth). And if the number of seats won this time is compared then it’s clear that BJP won’t be the junior partner anymore. This success by the national party can be attributed to better field management and strategy and hard work of election co-strategist Dharmendra Pradhan(as the chief strategist Ananth Kumar wasn’t available in Bihar most of the time thanks to his own ‘work’ in Karnataka). JDU won’t mind this stupendous success by the BJP as long as the alliance is there. In fact BJP put all the talks of Nitish leaving BJP’s hand on hold.
The election proved to be a deadly blow for all others. Lalu-Paswan’s worst ever defeat, questions marks on Rahul Gandhi’s capabilities- everything happened as per the ruling coalition’s script. Even the others and Independents couldn’t play a spoilsport this time giving a straight advantage to the NDA.
Now the only problem that the govt. has is the opposition from within. Such a large mandate is heavy to carry. It will be interesting to watch how Nitish with the help of a mightier BJP(which again is a threat for Nitish) manages this mandate and continues the victory story of Bihar. That shouldn’t be a problem for him. The power of ‘Good Politics’ is with him.