Why Sonia Gandhi should lose the 2014 general elections


The mother-son duo will have to wait

Why Sonia Gandhi would like to sit in the opposition in the next Lok Sabha!

It sounds weird, isn’t it? Why would the president of a national political party like to lose the general elections of the country? Not sure, if Sonia Gandhi really thinks so, but I would certainly suggest her to do so for the benefit of her party and accession of his son to the post of prime minister. Losing the 2014 election can be the sacrifice by Sonia Gandhi to avoid unstable and damaging situations for the Congress post-2014. As they say, “Kuch pane ke liye kuch khona padta hai (You have to sacrifice something to gain something).” If Sonia Gandhi decides to sacrifice the dream to win the 2014 elections, it will help her in the long run. Let me explain how.

The bigger picture for the 2014 is still not much clear. The recent results of the 5 state elections too haven’t given any clear indication regarding the grand finale that is scheduled in 2014. As the national parties Congress and BJP had not much at stake in these elections, these results won’t impact the national scenario after 3 years. The results of these five states have some indications for the Congress though. On the face, it may look like a Congress led UPA victory in 4 out of 5 states that went for poll but the results may increase the problems for the Congress high command. Mamata Banarjee with a clear majority on her own will now grow bigger in the UPA and won’t think much to jump off the UPA ship if she gets a hint that the ship will sink. A close contest in Kerala must have surprised the Congress leaders too. A sound drubbing at the hands of the voters of Tamil Nadu will also force them to rethink about their poll equations. With a fast growing ally in Trinamool and fast diminishing ally in DMK (these two are Congress’ biggest ally in this UPA), the power equations of Congress may get unbalanced. The sound victory in Assam may not mean much as Assam’s influence on the national scene is very limited.

But what will worry the grand old party the most is the indefensible charges of corruption. The opposition parties will not let such powerful ammunition slip out of their hands and most certainly keep the issues of corruption burning till the general elections. So far the opposition has done fairly good job to embarrass the govt. using the corruption complaints. With elections approaching, an aggressive and hungry for power BJP may trouble the Manmohan Singh govt. the most. The internal situations of the Congress will add to the woes of the govt. And the only way to tackle these situations is by sitting in the opposition in the next Lok Sabha.

It is very much unlikely that the Congress will fight the next election with Manmohan Singh as the candidate for the PM post. This is for A. his age of 81 (in 2014) and Congress’ agenda to attract youth will not be coherent and B. with Manmohan Singh the image of a helpless PM not being able to control his ministers from creating new scams will persist which the Congress would like to do away with. Congress may strike a deal with Manmohan with an offer of the President of India post in the future and look for other alternatives for the PM post.

If not Manmohan, then who? Sonia Gandhi will not like to destroy the image she has created for her by ‘sacrificing’ the PM post in 2004 by making herself available for the same post in 2014. Then Rahul Gandhi? Absolutely no chance. (A piece of advice to the BJP here: Don’t waste too much of your energy before Rahul Gandhi). Chances of Rahul being made the PM candidate in 2014 is next to zero. With no experience, no crucial political achievement to his name, Sonia Gandhi (and Rahul too) should know that the move to fight election with the prince charming as the Prime Ministerial candidate will be a huge blunder. The charges of dynastic politics will sound more credible if Sonia Gandhi plans to impose her inexperienced son as the proposed PM. While it is no secret that she wishes to see Rahul as the PM but she has to wait. With failure of the ‘young’ Gandhi to garner votes in Bihar, Tamil Nadu (where he participated in the poll preparations actively), the accession plan of Rahul Gandh has gone horribly wrong. And this is the biggest worry for the Congress. They are left with a few names: Pranab Mukerjee, P Chidambaram. Pranab Mukerjee had declared that he wouldn’t remain active in politics in the next Lok Sabha. Still he may decide to bail out Congress from the leadership dilemma if Congress leadership requests him. (Pranab da’s prime ministerial aspirations are no secret). But again his age doesn’t fit into Congress’ long term youth centric (read Rahul centric) plans. Again the other contender P Chidambaram will try his best to stop Pranab and make ground clear for his rise to the top post.

But P Chidambaram will be a thorn in flesh for Rahul Gandhi’s future plans. If P Chidambaram becomes the PM, his power in the congress circles will reach to ultimate level and he being young can also hijack the whole Congress youth strategies. Even if Congress is ousted from power in 2019 elections, it will be tough to reduce PC’s size unless Chidu himself makes some awful mistakes.

Call it irony, but India’s oldest political party depends too much on the Gandhi dynasty for unity among its ranks. Congress was a divided house before Sonia agreed to lead it and same may happen if anyone other than Rahul Gandhi becomes its leader (Shameful, isn’t it?). And as we discussed above Rahul can’t take that place in 2014. Rahul Gandhi can be given the leader of opposition post after the 2014 election. He can learn and increase his experience by performing his job of a democratic post. He can also earn public goodwill and make his PM candidature strong for the next election. Something what Sonia Gandhi did before defeating the NDA government in 2004. Considering these scenarios, losing the 2014 Lok Sabha election is the safest option in front of Sonia Gandhi. For the long run benefit, she has to do this unthinkable: plan to lose an election. By the way if the public of India makes its mind to show Congress the exit path, she need not even administer this option.

[This post first appeared as a guest post on Ashik Gosaliya’s blog ashikgosaliya.in. You can find that post here]

UPDATE: This post has been selected for Blogadda’s Tangy Tuesday Picks. BlogAdda has started ‘Tangy Tuesdays’ and ‘Spicy Saturdays’ where BlogAdda picks up good posts from Indian blogosphere and serves it to the readers on Tuesdays and Saturdays. This way, good posts are acknowledged and readers get to read quality content. This is also an opportunity for everyone to interact even more in fruitful discussions. Thank you blogadda for selecting my post this week for the honour. 🙂

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40 thoughts on “Why Sonia Gandhi should lose the 2014 general elections

  1. Now really, the horror options like PC for PM really make me squirm. Your theory may work for Rahul Gandhi, for the country, we seem to be caught between the devil and deep water. So, NDA next? Possible, given the anti-corruption wave, but if that means scrapping/downsizing congress’ somewhat pro ppl measures like right to education, food security bill, etc. then we are in for a hard time. If Cong wins, then it would legitimise corruption inn a way. Do i feel strandedc

    • This post was not about Congress or BJP, UPA or NDA. I just proposed a theory to explain how could the loss in 2014 may actually help the Congress and Rahul’s aspirations. 🙂

  2. I personally wouldn’t agree to the logic presented although the article tries it best to convince (and yes there is logic in it), but what is been seen and experience says Power hungry people would always to want to get his house in order but not to leave the power. The best could b convincing pranab da to b Pm for 1st year and then replace him with Rahul Gandhi. The gamble to wait for 5 years to teach RG the democratic way is some what over estimated considering him alarming absence in current parliament as MP. Infact CONG will do the act with saam daam dand bhed to retain the central government, n corner BJP as minimal party as with current election – LEFT’s importance and impact has been hugely dented and there has been no reliable and conducive third front (the current third front is worst thn that of VP singh / Deve Gowda / I K Gujaral) n hence CONG will use all tactics in book and even outside to remain in Power

  3. Krishna says:

    After reading this article , I am feeling more sad for the writer than Sonia :).
    First and foremost , PC would never be a challenge to anyone , do you even know how he got elected in TN ? do you know that he has absolutely no charisma on his own and cannot even teach a fish to swim in TN ?.
    He won accidentally and always in coattails of the winning party. if he even thinks of going against the Gandhi’s , there are lot more things that he needs to cover up , so he will be a puppy under Sonia.

    I agree that there must be a change , so can you even quote me who can be the next possible leader who can be the PM , you cannot even bring a leader from a magic hat , because as long as there is no uniting leader in the opposition , they are going to crowdsource the place and fall like pebbles.

  4. Ramalingam K S says:

    Call for a new Congress of Federation of Regional Congress Out-fits :
    Though it is too early to think of 2014 Parliamentary Elections now. One thing is certain that Congress High Command is weakening its State committees and losing to regional outfits all over and will be reduced to an almost regional party status .If my memory is correct it is having a majority o fits own in Assam , Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh[Or is it Rajasthan ?] only and is not a dominating party elsewhere .It will become weaker than BJP . It has found by experience that it is better to have stronger regional parties branches out of the original Congress better than any other regional party .That is the congress can become Federation of various Regional Congress outlook with people like Mamta & Sharat Pawar controlling the shows .It is better the AICC’s basic MOU or by-laws amended to have federation of Regional parties to give autonomy to the regional outlets and the Apex Federation ruling at the Centre similar to AITUC and CITU .
    Will Ahmed Patel ,Singh ,Rahul Gandhi or Digvijay Singh and the promising law Minister and the Home Minister or the Finance minister think deeply on these lines to hold the Congress in the days to come .
    It is a pity that AICC has not launched a TV of its own when most of the small parties have one for them .
    FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT FOR THE REGIONAL CONGRESSES GROW IN TRUE SPIIRT OF THE UNION OF STATES FOR INDIA .CONGRESS HIGH COMMAND SHOULD TAKE CARE OF NATIONAL ISSUES AN DLEAVE TLOCAL ISSUES TO THE LOCAL REGIONAL ENTITIIES – ATHORIUGH DECENTRALIZATION IS GOOD NOT ONLY FOR CONGRASS BUT ALSO FOR THE NATION .

  5. truth says:

    MODITVA, MODITVA, MODITVA, AND JUSTICE FOR BHARAT MATA!

    ONLY NARENDRA MODI CAN LEAD THE COUNTRY…AND HE WILL SHOCK THE WORLD IN 2014

      • Mach Bristo says:

        Please go ahead.You are free to leave.India is already over populated and you going out of the country does not make much difference.By the way,don;t forget to take your family with you.India is for Indians,no caste ,no creed,no religion.

        Hail the mother land.

        Regards,
        Mach Bristo.

      • Prabhat says:

        When BJP will come in power. Just like Gujrat, whole India will be more safer for minority. Because in actual sense secularism will advent.

      • Dr. Sudheer kher says:

        You can come back if you have fled. nothing of the sort happened! 23000 people will die if BJP came to power was Rahul’s way of creating fear psychosis. And you decided to flee in 2011 in anticipation! If you want to experience Achhe din come back!

  6. The post has logic and it has analysed all the facts well but some of it seems a little too far-fetched (read PC). So though this is a very good post, actually one of the best to do with party politics, but it is based on a lot of assumptions which might just not hold true.

  7. Debmalya Ghosh says:

    I think that BJP will gain power in next Loksabha!!!! Can anyone tell me the BJP’s view towards Reservation because for this reservation system many deserving candidates are not getting their deserving colleges or jobs and if this Congress govt exits then it’ll activate quota in private sectors also in near future then what will we the general caste do to get a job???? Private sector is the last resort to get a job for us the general caste!!!! I think the supporters of anti-reservation campaign and anti-corruption campaign among the youth and others should not vote for Congress!!!! That why I want to know BJP’s view towards Reservation????

  8. Shyam says:

    Probably the article might be logical. You’re suggesting Congress will be in Opposition, that means BJP rule in 2014???

    If the present situation continues its highly likely that BJP might come back into power in next General Elections. However, its too early to determine!!

    Currently UPA got 50+ seats between AP & TN. But, in the next elections this score very likely to come down to 10 or 12 seats, may be!!

    I do not see any state where Congress hawa will be continued..?? Probably in Maharastra because of the Opposition vote split UPA might benefit (same as earlier)

    Really can’t wait to see Modi as PM. For sure India will emerge as a powerful nation in the world under his rule, no more chemchagiri!!

    BJP must resolve in fighting between the leaders. Even people who oppose Modi with in BJP must think in the best interest of the nation, rather than personal egos!!

    Well, still enough time is there, lets wait & see what happens in 2014…..?

    • Mach Bristo says:

      The Article has some good points which reflect the Congress party’s present condition.Rahul Gandhi neither has intelligence assets nor has done any ground work.He got position because of his family. Rahul Gandhi on his own is ordinary as any Indian citizen and above that he does not have any education qualification and few who don’t know anything about him would like to know that he faked his education qualification while filing nomination during election in 2009 Rae-barelly.He claimed to be M.phil,when Dr subramanian swamy filed a filed a PIL in supreme court he did not contest it,instead he withdrew it.He did not work as MLC or MLA for the people to believe in his work,Instead his party workers are laying the ground work for him,that is so shameful.Some one sows the seeds and some one eats the fruit.

  9. strong corruption charges and high inflation , anna and ramdev movement , lost of credibility to fight against corruption will make bjp to come into power. congress will rooted out in AP, which bring UPA into power.

  10. rajthilak says:

    No one can stop the ascend of Mr Modi to the PM post and no one can ever make rahul as PM. One thing is rahul is not made of the stuff of indira,rajiv, etc. When there is no passion and real love for the people of the country and people who are interested only in becoming PM’s or CM’S , the country can never prosper. Other than being the Gandhi scion , what other quality he has got? Has he taken any stand or decision in any ot the national issues. Its dreadful to think of such a person becomming of PM of the country at such a crucial period in the history of India.We need people who are assertive , have self respect and love and passion for the country and its people. This can only be possible with Modi aS PM.
    Who else honestly, can anyone point to ? The villification campaign congress has launched against Mr Modi, will end disasterously for congress. They will learn it the hard way.
    Jai Hind
    RajThilak

  11. Krishna Sharma says:

    Now India wants a leader from India not from a foreign country or Nehru-Gandhi family because Nehru has destroyed India for 15 years and now Sonia Gandhi also destroying. Now India wants leader like Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj or a young Bharatiya leader.

  12. Raju says:

    Look back and you would find congress has used many scapegoats in its favour and Congress has a long list of loyals…….somebody will sacrifice his political career in the name of Rahul Gandhi and Rahul ‘s experience has to come from there!!!!

  13. jeet says:

    there is no change for Rahul as PM, bcoz…. once NDA come on rule in 2014 elections , its require minimum 20 years for UPA to change the NDA govt. with 2 G , CWG, buforse, cbi.. black money… and too many cases …to forget all the corruptions require minimum 20 years…

    • jenil says:

      No way…Our people have very short memory.. If wat u say is correct Jayalalitha wud not become Chief Minister of TN in her entire lifet time :):):)

  14. p.harish says:

    because of scams of nearly 5 lakh crore upa loose its power at center,maharastra.
    bacause of telangana issue it looses its power in telangana region whereas BJP,TRS will establish their parties in that region.congress also looses its power in rajasthan,mizoram

  15. Desh says:

    Guys we all belongs to educated family so dnt follow any BJP or COngress just see the videos of Dr. Subramanyam Swamy and realsise does rahul is capable of Prime Minister Chair… Future is in our hands …..pursuit intelligence not dumb. Look For subramnayam swamy videos on Utube and decide what u need.

  16. Churchill Kumar Shah says:

    Sonia has got more than 1 lac crore in Swiss Bank and her congress party is very clever regarding confronting corruption.I urge people of India never ever vote for Congress.It’s high time we need leaders like Narendra Modi Lion of India to be our PM and Anna hazare, kiran bedi, arvind kehrival to stand strong against terrorism and corruption. how bloody congress can point finger on arvind kehriwal telling that you owe about 10 lacs how about other IAS, Congress Politicians who are looting our Nation openly. shame on you congress govt. what do you know about Kiran bedi and Arvind kehriwal? if they want they would have taken bribe in their respective services but they didn’t do.at least by now open your eyes stand against corruption & terrorism. sometimes I feel Britisher were far better than Congress govt.God bless India.and about Man Mohan he always does what is being told by sonia gandhi. but he knows who is the real culprit for all the scams such as Coal & Mining scam about 220 Billion dollar, 2G Spectrum scam about 1.76 lakh crore scam, CWG Scam & lots others. he need to open his mouth who is the main culprit for frolicking game for all the scams? .now we need change again I am urging people of India Never ever vote for Congress.

  17. Bharatiya says:

    don’t even project a possibility of Rahul becoming PM ,he is a sick man Mentally a BONSAI , a Bonsai only grows horizontally and not vertically , he can never reach the post of PM

  18. ali says:

    The article is good but ignores the uneducated population of India which after slogans not the economy. It wont matter as long as Congress can build momentum with power slogans.

  19. baskar says:

    see these comments are useless since terroist narrendra modi come to power also secularism is going to be destroyed in addition to corruption, since who has money will win the power. who ever is commenting if they come to power also without corruption running the government will be difficult

  20. ts shyam says:

    it is not necessary for soniagi to loose 2014 election to pave way for rahul. she should analyse the party’s approach in the field of national development defer the implementation of fdi though it gained majority in the lok sabha and rajya sabha. she should rethink the adverse effect of fdi in retail in this semi balanced economical situation in India. Time is more availabale for soniagi to call political experts in india and keep aside the infights in the party. let Rahul gi go the way……to success.

  21. I agree with you, Rahul Gandhi is inexperienced has not done and any extra ordinary which Congress party would have like. Bihar, UP elections were Congress lose pathetically were given to Rahul which Congress party thought he can win these states for us. but Results was altogether different and Rahul Gandhi once again fail to deliver. Dreaming that 2014 would be Congress winning and Rahul would the PM then an inexperience leader who had not done much in politics getting a politic career because of his name. Sonia can be the PM candidate if Congress win 2014 elections by fluke.There are several other leaders who can be the good candidate for top job they can be: P. Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Jairam Ramesh etc. But the thing is that they take decision on their own and not the 10 Janpath interference. like it is happening from last 10 years that PM is Dr. Manmohan Singh but decision on any issue taken by Mrs Sonia Gandhi.

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