As the #ElectionResults2013 started pouring in this morning, TV studios across the country started asking one common question: “Is there a Modi wave?”. The answer is, certainly, NO. The wave that has swept the four states (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Chattishgarh) that went to the elections in 2013 is “Anti-Congress” in nature but Modi is the national face of this wave. Some political analysts have, however, expressed their doubts over Modi’s influence over the BJP‘s performance in the 4 states assembly elections as the BJP didn’t sweep Delhi and Chattishgarh. Did the BJP’s Prime Ministerial Modi fail to impress the people then? Let’s find out how the Modi factor affected the BJP’s performance in each of these 4 states.
Madhya Pradesh is the state which was influenced the least by Modi. The reason was obviously the presence of a strong leader in the incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The BJP government boasted an impressive report card and the government was expected to get the mandate to rule the state for the third term. However, there was a belief that BJP’s strength in the assembly would be reduced with Congress doing a late catching up thanks to the leadership of Jyotiraditya Scindia. The results, however, show that BJP has actually gained seats compared to the last elections in MP despite the 10 years of incumbency. It can’t be conclusively said if the 20 odd seats that the BJP has gained was because of the Modi factor. In short, Modi had a limited influence in MP and he worked well in the supporting role in the state.
If I could rate Modi’s effect on the MP results on a 10 point scale, I would give 5/10.
Another state where BJP was set to return to power was Rajasthan. The state has a history of changing government in every 5 years. Add Vasundhara Raje‘s charisma to that and it was almost certain that Congress would lose the state despite it being the model state for the Congress brand of governance. But did anyone expect the Congress to hit the lowest mark with a measly 21 seats in a 199 member assembly? This decimation of congress was partly due to the Modi factor as accepted by Vasundhara Raje a short while ago. Gujarat being a neighboring state of Rajasthan, usually comparison happens between the two states in terms of governance. Gujarat’s progress under the Modi brand of governance certainly played a role in influencing the people of Rajasthan rejecting the congress brand.
Modi’s effect on the Rajasthan Results: 6/10
History suggests that assembly elections end up with close fights in Chattishgarh with 5-10 seats difference between the winner and the other party. BJP has retained its position (49 seats compared to 50 seats last time) even though the initial trends showed Congress inching ahead of the BJP. Despite the much lauded good governance provided by Dr Raman Singh and his government, there were doubts over the ability of this govt. to return to the power because of two basic reasons. One, the 10 years of incumbency and two (the most important as well), the behaviour of Bastar area which everyone thought would go in favor of the Congress expressing sympathy to the slain congress leaders in a maoist attack. Modi, a clever politician, knew this well and focused a lot on Chattishgarh. He visited several times and addressed 12 rallies in the state which has only 90 assembly seats (that’s one rally for every 7-8 seats). In the end if BJP managed to retain power despite the doubtful start, a large part of the credit must also go to Modi.
Modi’s effect on the Chattishgarh Results: 7/10
Despite the 15 years of Congress rule, BJP was never in a position threaten Congress in Delhi. It was always hopeful of getting back to the power by default as the only viable alternative to encash the anger for Congress misrule. On the emergence of another strong alternative in the form of Arvind Kejariwal’s AAP, BJP didn’t start its campaign well. AAP’s volunteer activism based campaign was well suited for Delhi and thanks to its clean image, it started capturing the anti-congress votes. Thanks to the infighting and lack of a leader with a clean image, BJP was losing out in the race initially.
Narendra Modi‘s intervention in this scenario was on two fronts. First, he projected Dr Harshvardhan with a clean image as the BJP’s CM candidate in Delhi. As the decision had the backing of Modi, long-time CM hopeful Vijay Goel had to go with the decision without creating any drama. Modi also addressed 7 mega rallies (1 each in every Lok Sabha constituency/1 rally for every 7 assembly constituency).
As per the results announced today, BJP has ended up as the single largest party in Delhi and within a striking distance from a simple majority. There’s just one question for those asking “where’s the Modi wave?”. Considering AAP’s stunning performance and the splitting of the anti-congress votes, would the BJP have won the 33 seats it has now secured if Modi hadn’t been a factor? That should answer how Modi affected the Delhi elections.
Modi’s effect on the Delhi Results: 8/10